Cyber Threat Analysis

Cyber threat analysis refers to the systematic study of information relating to malicious cyber activities, capabilities, and occurrences. 

Cyber threat analysis provides actionable intelligence to inform defensive measures against hackers, organized cybercrime, state-sponsored actors, terrorist groups, and other threat entities targeting computer systems and networks.

As cyberattacks grow more prevalent and sophisticated, cyber threat analysis enables organizations to better understand the risks they face in cyberspace. Timely analysis of emerging threats allows cybersecurity teams to enact proactive safeguards before systems are compromised.

Key Concepts

Definition

Cyber threat analysis is the process of collecting, evaluating, interpreting, and disseminating data relating to events or actors that present a danger to information systems and digital infrastructure. It aims to uncover plans and capabilities that may result in a future attack. [1]

Threat analysis transforms scattered details into decision-advantage intelligence. Analysts synthesize both strategic assessments and tactical warnings to provide organizations with actionable advice for enhancing defenses. The analysis looks at the full spectrum of potential threats including insider risks, third-party vendor weaknesses, and supply chain vulnerabilities in addition to external adversaries.

Purpose

The primary purposes of cyber threat analysis are to:

• Detect early indicators of emerging adversarial tradecraft, tools, and infrastructure.
• Attribute cyberattacks to known threat groups based on their tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs).
• Anticipate high-likelihood threats and probable targets.
• Enable proactive action to harden defenses and protect assets before they are attacked.
• Guide strategies, priorities, and budget allocation based on risks.

Relevance

Cyber threat analysis is relevant for:

• Government agencies - Prioritize national security efforts against pervasive state-sponsored threats. Intelligence agencies can focus operations on rival nations. Agencies can also bolster cyber readiness by learning about criminal and hacktivist threats.

• Critical infrastructure - Protect essential utilities, transportation systems, manufacturing. Providers can safeguard systems that society depends on. Threat awareness enables hardening of critical systems.

• Businesses - Guard intellectual property, customer data, core systems. Companies can protect trade secrets and operations. Competitor threats can also be monitored.

• Law enforcement - Track cyber criminal groups and develop countermeasures. Agencies can combat global cybercrime syndicates. Law enforcement can pool intelligence with international partners.

• Security vendors - Uncover malware campaigns, hacker activities, vulnerability trends. Vendors can enhance products with relevant protections. Shared intelligence allows coordinated responses across vendors.

Components/Types

Cyber threat analysis involves integrating data from various sources to derive actionable findings:

Threat Data Collection

Gathering raw intelligence on cyber threats from multiple sources: 

• Malware analysis involves reverse engineering malware samples to understand their capabilities. By studying malware code, analysts can identify new tradecraft. Both commercial and open source tools are utilized.

• Vulnerability research entails studying disclosed software flaws to anticipate how adversaries may seek to exploit them. Analysts can recommend patching priority based on exploit potential. Public disclosures as well as proprietary research provide vulnerability intelligence.

• Honeypots allow monitoring adversary activities in deception environments that attract hackers. Observing intruders in safe environments provides threat intelligence. Honeypots can employ varied levels of sophistication.

• Mining hacker forums and marketplaces on the dark web uncovers threats being discussed and sold online. Visibility into criminal underground activities provides valuable intelligence. Human linguists and translation tools help analyze foreign language sources.

• Lessons learned from past attacks, contained in incident reports, reveal adversarial TTPs that can signal future strikes. Both internal incident reports and external breach reports are studied.

Threat Modeling

Analyzing data to understand key threat characteristics:

• Threat actors - Threat actors are attributed based on consistent tactics, techniques and procedures allowing attacks to be tied to known groups. This enables prioritization against sophisticated adversaries. Analysts piece together small clues about groups to infer their identity.

• Capabilities - Assessing the tools, exploits, and infrastructure possessed by adversaries reveals emerging capabilities on the horizon. Organizations can get ahead of new hacking tools. Version tracking shows evolution of malware families.

• Targets - Determining assets, sectors, and geographies being targeted focuses defenses on probable targets aligned with adversary objectives. Target patterns reveal adversary motivations.

• Trends - Identifying shifts in tactics, malware, adversary coordination unveils trends and growing challenges to address quickly. Analysts avoid stagnant thinking to recognize strategic shifts.

Intelligence Fusion

Synthesizing insights into high-fidelity, forward-looking assessments:

• Risk forecasting - Risk forecasting estimates attack likelihood and impact potential for better strategic decision making. Statistical models and subject matter expertise inform risk estimates.

• Early warning - Detecting pre-attack stages like reconnaissance and weaponization provides early warning to enable disruption. Multi-source data fusion enables connecting dots of impending attacks.

• Threat briefings - Threat briefings present analytical findings and mitigation recommendations to stakeholders. Briefings adapted to audience needs from executives to practitioners.

Importance in Cybersecurity

Cyber threat analysis is essential for security in key ways:

Security Risks

• Strategic surprise arises when organizations fail to anticipate and prepare for significant new adversarial capabilities on the horizon. Threat analysis minimizes surprises. Blind spots are exposed.

• Missed opportunities to mitigate known attack vectors can occur if threat intelligence is ignored. Organizations fail to enact basic precautions. Available intelligence capabilities are wasted.

• Complacency arises from a lack of visibility into emerging tactics and malware strains. Threat analysis provides vital visibility. Defenders avoid stagnation through continuous learning.

Mitigation Strategies

Effective threat analysis enables organizations to:

• Block identified malware, exploits, attacker infrastructure preemptively based on IOCs revealed by threat research. Analysts feed real-time intelligence into preventive controls.

• Harden security controls in anticipation of TTPs threat actors are developing, reducing their impact. The element of surprise is lost for attackers.

• Increase monitoring of likely attack targets revealed by threat intelligence to detect attacks early. Defenders gain advantage by laying traps and tripwires for attackers.

• Make better risk management decisions weighing probability and business impact forecasted by analysts. Risk frameworks can be tailored to organizational risk appetite.

• Devote resources to disrupt sophisticated threats before large-scale attacks based on priorities uncovered by intelligence. Cyber operations are enabled against dangerous groups.

Best Practices

Guidelines for effective cyber threat analysis programs:

• Dedicate specialized analysts and technology for continuous threat research.
• Adopt a consistent methodology for collecting, analyzing, and disseminating threat intel.
• Correlate insights across multiple threat feeds, don't rely on just one.
• Share findings with technology vendors, security researchers, and industry groups.
• Translate raw technical details into clear executive briefings on business risk.
• Use threat intelligence to generate specific preventive countermeasures.
• Continuously refine analytical techniques an

Related Terms

• Threat hunting - Proactively searching through data to detect threats that evaded defenses.
• Vulnerability management - Lifecycle of identifying and remediating vulnerabilities.
• Cyber wargaming - Simulations predicting how threats may evolve based on current intelligence.

Further Reading

• The Practice of Network Security Monitoring by Richard Bejtlich

Cyber threat analysis transforms opaque, scattered data points into actionable intelligence revealing what is on the horizon. By diligently monitoring cyber adversaries, organizations gain an information advantage allowing them to prepare amid rising threats. Capable threat analysis teams, armed with meaningful intelligence and insights, are indispensable for enabling organizations to envision potential attacks, enact data-driven defenses, and ultimately protect their critical assets and reputations.

Threat intelligence provides the fuel for cyber defense readiness powering proactive actions against unrelenting threats. Organizations must overcome complacency and stagnant thinking by embodying vigilance through continuous threat analysis. With persistent research, expertise, and tradecraft, threat analysts empower security teams to see around corners saving organizations from strategic surprise.